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- Published on: 1900
- Binding: Hardcover
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Why two heads aren’t necessarily better
By Paul Froehlich
According to conventional wisdom, two heads are better than one. In other words, group decisions should be better than decisions made by individuals since there are more people pondering them. Not so, contend Reid Hastie and Cass Sunstein, who cite evidence that committees and boards can be more error-prone than individuals. The authors explain why, and offer ways to improve group decision-making.
The evidence, write Hastie and Sunstein, indicate that groups commonly succumb to groupthink, where members get on board with the prevailing views in the group in a “group-level cascade.” Therefore they fail to critically examine proposals. Instead of having everyone actively participate in decision-making, groups are often dominated by a few members who have disproportionate influence. When various members don’t bring up contradictory information, the group is deprived of relevant evidence that might make for a more successful decision.
A notorious example in history was John F. Kennedy’s cabinet giving the green light to the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion. Various cabinet members harbored serious doubts about the policy, but did not express their view at the time, assuming that everyone else was in favor. Thus JFK was deprived of valuable information that might have prevented the debacle.
All human beings have certain biases -- such as optimism bias, loss aversion, and self-serving bias -- but groups tend to amplify those biases, and that leads to inaccurate decisions. It happens because group decisions increase confidence and decrease disagreement. Group deliberation makes people more unified even in their private views; thus groups are polarizing in moving members toward one viewpoint that they did not all start with.
Committees are more likely to make solid decisions when three factors are present. Members have accurate social perception in reading people’s emotions; when most members of the group instead of a few actually participate; and when there are a significant number of women in the group.
There are ways to improve group decision-making. One way is for the chairman to elicit information that people have, by making sure younger or newer members are encouraged to talk and that diverse perspectives are welcomed. Since a leader taking a strong advocacy position will inhibit discussion, good leaders should be slow to take positions and should not do most of the talking. The chairman should recognize the value of anxious people who are cautious about what could go wrong, as opposed to happy talk people telling the leader what he wants to hear.
Groups need to redefine what it means to be a team player: Those who are most valuable to the team are individuals who contribute something that the others are missing, such as critical scrutiny. Hastie and Sunstein make a convincing case that a better group culture means more successful groups. ###
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